Dubai has experienced record flooding in the past 24 hours, leading to misleading speculation about cloud formation.
How much rain was unusual and what the consequences were ? Consequences? What are the reasons for the extreme rainfall?
How extreme was the rainfall?
Dubai is located on the coast of the United Arab Emirates. (WATER) and is generally very dry. But even though on average less than 100 mm of rain falls per year, extreme precipitation events occasionally occur.
In the city of Al-Ain - A little more than 100 kilometers from Dubai: approximately 256 millimeters of rain were recorded in just 24 hours.
An “isolated” climate system. "The main cause was low pressure, which sucked in warm, moist air and blocked the passage of other weather systems.
"This part of the world is characterized by long periods of time without rain, then heavy and irregular rain, but it was still a very rare rainfall event," explains Professor Maarten Ambaum, a meteorologist at the University of Reading who has studied rainfall patterns in the Gulf region.
What is cloud seeding?
To talk about cloud seeding, we first need to talk about the clouds themselves Clouds, made of tiny ice crystals, or water droplets, form when water vapor in the atmosphere cools. Precipitation, or water falling to the surface as rain or snow, occurs when these droplets condense and condense. combine with particles of dust, salt or smoke to create a drop or snowflake (composed of millions of such drops) that can fall from a cloud.
Cloud seeding is a decades-long climate change strategy in which these binding agents are introduced into the atmosphere to cause more precipitation. It is used by countries around the world, mainly in areas affected by drought problems. The process can be done on the ground, with generators or with an airplane.
Meteorologists carefully monitor clouds before seeding them, also to get the best result. to provide timely precipitation when it is needed most.
The Desert Research Institute (DRI), a Nevada nonprofit, uses silver iodide, a compound that, according to its scientists, occurs naturally in the environment and is not harmful. Therefore, it is burned or dropped from planes to reach the clouds. According to CNBC, the United Arab Emirates, which began its cloud seeding program in the 1990s, uses one kilogram of salt compounds that are burned and turned into clouds by specially equipped aircraft. “Our specialized aircraft use only natural salts and no harmful chemicals,” the UAE's National Center of Meteorology (NCM) told CNBC in March.
Is it the cause of cloud formation Heavy rain?
In a statement published in several media outlets, the NCM, which oversees cloud seeding operations in the UAE, said no such cloud seeding operations had been carried out before or during the storm
Omar Al Yazeedi, deputy director general of the NCM, said: “During this special weather event, we do not participate in storm operations sowing. The essence of cloud seeding is targeting clouds at an earlier stage, before precipitation. During a severe storm scenario, planting activities would be in vain.
Friederike Otto, professor of climate science at Imperial College London, told Reuters that precipitation is increasing around the world, much heavier as the climate warms, because a warmer atmosphere can withstand more moisture. It is misleading to talk about cloud seeding as a cause of heavy rain, he said.
Skepticism among some about the real cause of the disaster highlights a frustrating duality: the public's willingness to blame climate manipulation goes hand in hand with a reluctance to on the other, accept that other human activities are actively contributing to the climate crisis and, ultimately, to extreme events like this.
“It is important to understand the causes plausible explanations of these phenomena. Record extreme rainfall this week in Dubai and parts of the Arabian Peninsula. Has cloud seeding played a role? Probably not! But what about climate change? Probably yes! Climate scientist Daniel Swain said in a written statement, adding that these discrepancies impact "how we collectively understand our ability to actively influence climate across different spatial and temporal scales." What role did the climate crisis play?
The huge rainfall was likely due to a normal weather system exacerbated by climate change, expert researchers say.
A low pressure system in the upper atmosphere, coupled with low pressure at the surface, acted as a "squeeze" of pressure in the air, said Esraa Alnaqbi, a senior meteorologist at the NCM.
This pressure, amplified by the contrast between warmer temperatures at ground level and cooler temperatures aloft, created the conditions for a powerful storm, he told Reuters and added that climate changes likely also contributed to the storm.
Climatologists say rising global temperatures caused by climate change caused by man is leading to more extreme weather events around the world. around the world, including heavy rainfall.
“Precipitation brought by thunderstorms, such as that seen in the United Arab Emirates in recent days, is particularly intense and hot. "above. This is because convection, the strong updraft during thunderstorms, becomes stronger in a warmer world," Dim Coumou, professor of extreme weather at Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam, told Reuters.
Will cloud seeding continue?
In areas that desperately need more rain or snow, cloud seeding is seen as another way to improve what already exists .
Areas that have implemented the strategy have seen a significant increase in their water supply DRI reports an increase in snow cover of 10% or more per year year when clouds form, citing another study in the snowy mountains of New South Wales, Australia, which resulted in an increase of 10% or more per year when clouds form, equivalent to 14% of snowfall. < div>
But it's not just about getting more water. Changing the cloud has. they have been used to prevent flooding, as when Indonesian scientists targeted clouds primed for heavy rain and planned better to project them into the ocean rather than into vulnerable communities. In China, where the government has spent billions to manipulate the climate, cloud seeding has been used to ensure clear skies and less pollution during a political event.
But the experts are of the opinion that I want to quickly point out that the formation of clouds cannot produce more water: it simply favors the fall of what is there. That means it's less effective in times of drought.
"It's just another tool in the water supply toolbox," said Mike Eytel, senior water resources specialist in Colorado. River District, said Yale Environment 360. "It's not the panacea some people think it is."